Sunday Times Poll

LEADERSHIP APPROVAL RATING ON BUDGET PERFORMANCE:

Alex Salmond: +11%
Annabelle Goldie: -3%
Iain Gray: -17%
Tavish Scott: -19%
Patrick Harvie: -25%

WHO WOULD MAKE BEST FIRST MINISTER:

Alex Salmond: 35%
Iain Gray: 15%
Annabel Goldie: 11%
Tavish Scott: 5%

SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ELECTION

Constituency vote (change on May 2007 in brackets)

SNP: 38% (+5)
Lab: 32% (--)
Con: 13% (-4)
Lib D: 12% (-4)

Regional vote:

SNP: 34% (+3)
Lab: 28% (-1)
Con: 15% (+1)
Lib D: 11% (--)
Gre: 6% (+2)
SSP: 4% (+3)
Sol: 1%

Scottish Parliament seats:
SNP: 47 (--)
Lab: 44 (-2)
Con: 18 (+1)
Lib D: 13 (-3)
Gre: 5 (+3)
SSP: 2 (+2)

WESTMINSTER ELECTION

Lab: 37% (-3)
SNP: 27 (+9))
Con: 20 (+4)
Lib D: 12 (-11)

ECONOMY

Trust most to make the right decisions in tough economic times (change from October Sunday Times YouGov poll in brackets):

Alex Salmond: 33% (+10)
Gordon Brown: 33% (-9)

In the October 2008 Sunday Times YouGov poll, Gordon Brown led Alex Salmond by 42% to 23%.

INDEPENDENCE

Support for independence (previous Sunday Times YouGov poll in October 2008 in brackets)

For: 29% (31)
Against 55% (53)

New YouGov Poll

There's a poll in today's Daily Telegraph which makes grim reading for Gordon Brown. However, I've just got hold of the Scottish breakdown (It's a Westminster poll), which runs as follows:

SNP - 35%
Labour - 28%
Con - 22%
Lib Dem - 12%

Usual health warnings about small sample sizes apply... but the high polling for the Tories aside, they're not so very out of step with recent trends. It may not be the actual numbers which are so important, as the direction of travel with Labour's ratings rapidly heading South as the SNP continue to do well.

Electoral Calculus makes for interesting reading if you plug these figures in. The SNP take 25 seats; Labour would be on 21; there's a mini-Tory revival taking them to 7; while the Lib Dems plummet to 6. Interesting times... :-)

Following On...

Since it backs up some of the points I made in my previous post, here's details of an opinion poll showing the state of play as the Scottish Government approaches it's first 100 days in power:

If a Holyrood election was held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

SNP 48%
Labour 32%
Tories 8%
Lib Dems 8%
Greens 2%
SSP 2%

How satisfied are you with the SNP's performance to date?

Very satisfied 10%
Quite satisfied 30%
Neither 25%
Quite dissatisfied 7%
Very dissatisfied 5%
Unsure/don't know 23%

Would you approve or disapprove of Scotland becoming independent?

Approve 31%
Disapprove 49%
Unsure/don't know 20%

Good News Travels Fast

Rather irritatingly, Tory über-blogger Ian Dale, has scooped us all with details of a sensational poll in tomorrow’s Scotsman (even more so since he appears to be on a jolly to Washington DC right now!). In figures unprecedented this close to an election, it would seem that the SNP has a 5-point lead over Labour for Holyrood in the constituency vote and a 4-point lead in the regional ballot.

It looks like the wheels are coming off the Labour campaign, since this poll won’t take account of Health Minister Andy Kerr announcing a probe in to the alleged manipulation of NHS waiting lists. Neither will it have been able to digest the astonishing news that senior Labour aide, Stephen Lawther, had quit his post following clashes with colleagues over tactics and presentation. And with Jack McConnell providing such visible leadership…

The polls have been remarkably consistent of late, agreeing that the SNP is ahead, even if there’s some debate about the magnitude. And unless far more complex moves are afoot, this apparent swing to the SNP looks like having one of two possible explanations. Neither, it has to be said, looks particularly good for Labour.

The first explanation is that traditional independence-supporting Labour voters might be starting to come over to the SNP, thus threatening to tip the balance in many marginal central-belt seats. Alternatively and perhaps more worryingly for Labour, if these voters are staying loyal, perhaps it is floating voters who don’t necessarily want independence, that are now looking for an SNP government.

Neither group looks like particularly fertile ground for Labour’s current nat-bashing strategy, described by one party stalwart at the weekend as being ‘The worst campaign I have been involved in for over 20 years”. While I’d never underestimate the power of the Labour establishment in Scotland to pull out the stops for the party, even that might not be enough to save them this time.

The SNP deserves a chance to show what it can do in office. I hope these figures can be taken as a sign that it might be about to happen.